The Profit vs People conundrum.

The world as we knew it has ceased to exist. Well it actually did in December of last year, when, in Wuhan, the capital of Central China’s Hubei province a  small cluster of about 40 odd patients were diagnosed with a mysterious pneumonia. This was subsequently connected to a Novel Corona virus and the Huanan wholesale seafood market. Lots of speculations about its origins, transition and eventual transmission to humans, its reproductive number R-nought, have been made, but none conclusive and with substantiated evidence. They are at best educated deductions made from extrapolating past similar data and at worst conspiracy theories of a Hollywood addict on a weed inspired high, Truth be told, we are now sailing in unchartered waters.

The Wuhan virus has thrown the most meticulously planned strategies of nations, into the dustbin. Just the other day, we were debating about Countries with the largest GDP’s, trade wars, etc. The favoured topic of discussion from boardrooms to bars and pubs was economies of nations and various theories were espoused regarding the race to lead the world in the 21^st century. All that seems to be a distant dream now, as the only thing occupying the minds of the billions around the world, is this small zoonotic virus which is self-replicating and mutating all around the world.

As it traverses from East Asia to the Middle East and Europe wreaking havoc in terms of infections and fatalities all over, the world as we knew it has come to a halt .Most countries have called for and effected a lock down of unprecedented magnitude and we, in India, have been indoors since last week.

Since time immemorial, more lives have been lost to diseases, than in wars. A lot more to diseases and pandemics like Plague, Cholera, Spanish flu etc. Common sense would dictate that the world pay far more attention to medical research, to avoid a recurrence of a similar catastrophe. However, in all our trumped-up bravado and glory we seem to be drunk with an ill-founded sense of infallibility and are found short again.  

While the human cost is enormous and threatens to be even worse, the economy of the world and all the constituent countries have been brutally ravaged, some more severely than others. Which brings us to the debate raging world over, as conspiracy theories, some so wild, that they would put Hollywood screen play writers to shame, make the rounds. Leaders of countries are closeted with their economists to count the cost of lockdowns and extending them. They are then computing the repercussions of lifting the lock downs in term of additional fatalities. Morbid as it may seem, these discussions are actually going on in the corridors of power, as nations try to reopen at the earliest and limit damage, to their economy. 

The vast majority of workers in India do not have the luxury of savings to help them tide over a month or two without work. Sorry, that must be coming from a junkie high on weed. They can barely survive a day or two without earnings. For a majority of Indians, life is led on a day to day basis. We are seeing the effect of the lock down as the visuals of thousands walking home, back to the villages, hundreds of Kms, on television, has left the rest of India dumbfounded. Debates rage all over as to whether this lock down is an overkill.

Even under normal circumstances, with data to substantiate, this would be a very tricky decision to make. However, considering that there is no data worth mentioning, which is even remotely accurate, makes this situation akin to rolling a dice. A premature lifting of the lock down, risks a secondary wave of community transmission and could result in additional fatalities, of maybe humongous proportions and in all probability, another extended lock down. On the other hand, every additional day of lock down is costing the country very dearly. 

Share markets all over the world are plummeting, eroding investors wealth to scrap in minutes. GDP growth rates are being constantly revised downwards and some are debating, as to whether talk of a growth rate itself, is unfounded optimism. The tiff between the Saudis and Russia has sent the oil markets into a tizzy. Recession and depression are terminologies being banded about in the corridors of power. This situation is to a large extent true for all economies of the world as the leaders, grapple with the same challenge. More so the US of A, where there seems to be unanimity of opinion that this pandemic would definitely assist the Chinese and enable them to catch up with the US in terms of the size of their economies. Some economists, even venturing far enough to suggest that the US’s days as the world leader are numbered.

 The fact that China is apparently on the road to recovery from the Covid 19 pandemic and its factories are likely to commence operations in the very near future, has made the other large economies of the world a bit more nervous of extended lockdowns. Will the world leaders hasten the lifting of the lockdowns risking huge number of fatalities? Will political compulsions influence decisions? Lives of citizens are paramount and that is all that matters. Everything else is of secondary importance. This should be the flow of thought under normal circumstances but the situation today is anything but normal. Consequently, as the leaders of various countries entrusted with the world’s  future, deliberate in the corridors of power, I am not very sure if number of lives  likely to be lost, are being bandied about as just another point of concern akin to GDP’s, Dow Jones ,Nasdaq and unemployment data.

Will posterity judge this period in history as a glorious time when momentous decisions were made for the survival of hundred of thousands if not millions or would it be bandied as a catastrophic tragedy  when the moral depravity of its leaders caused millions of lives to be lost?

Only time will tell.